Article Details

Ransomware's Fragmentation Reaches a Breaking Point While LockBit Returns. Key Takeaways: In Q3 2025, Check Point Research recorded a record 85 active ransomware and extortion groups, the highest ever observed. What was once a concentrated market dominated by a few ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) giants has splintered into dozens of smaller, short-lived operations. This proliferation of leak sites represents a fundamental structural shift. The same enforcement and market pressures that disrupted large RaaS groups have fueled a wave of opportunistic, decentralized actors, many run by former affiliates now operating independently. Read the full Q3 2025 Ransomware Report A Record 85 Active Groups Across more than 85 monitored leak sites, ransomware operators published: Smaller actors are now posting fewer than ten victims each, reflecting a rise in independent operations outside traditional RaaS hierarchies. Many emerged from the collapse of RansomHub, 8Base, and BianLian. Fourteen new groups began publishing in Q3 alone, bringing the 2025 total to 45. Fragmentation at this level erodes predictability, once the cyber security professional's advantage. When large RaaS brands dominated, security teams could track affiliate behaviors and infrastructure reuse. Now, dozens of ephemeral leak sites make attribution fleeting and reputation-based intelligence far less reliable. Read the full Q3 2025 Ransomware Report. Law Enforcement's Limited Impact Several high-profile takedowns this year targeting groups like RansomHub and 8Base have not meaningfully reduced ransomware volume. Affiliates displaced by these operations simply migrate or rebrand. The problem is structural. Law-enforcement efforts typically dismantle infrastructure or seize domains, not the affiliates who execute attacks. When a platform falls, those operators scatter and regroup within days. The result is a broader, more resilient ecosystem that mirrors decentralized finance or open-source communities more than a traditional criminal hierarchy. This diffusion also undermines the credibility of the ransomware market. Smaller, short-lived crews have no incentive to honor ransom agreements or provide decryption keys. Payment rates, estimated at just 25 to 40 percent, continue to decline as victims lose trust in attacker promises. LockBit's Return and Re-centralization In September 2025, LockBit 5.0 marked the return of one of cybercrime's most enduring brands. Its administrator, LockBitSupp, had teased a comeback for months following the 2024 takedown under Operation Cronos. The new version delivers: At least a dozen victims were hit in the first month. The campaign demonstrates renewed affiliate confidence and technical maturity. For attackers, joining a recognizable brand like LockBit brings something smaller crews cannot offer: reputation. Victims are more likely to pay when they believe they will actually receive decryption keys, trust that large RaaS programs carefully maintain. If LockBit succeeds in attracting affiliates seeking structure and credibility, it could recentralize a significant portion of the ransomware economy. Centralization has a dual effect. It makes tracking easier but increases the potential scale of coordinated attacks. DragonForce and the Performance of Power DragonForce illustrates another survival strategy: visibility through branding. In September, the group publicly claimed coalitions with both LockBit and Qilin on underground forums. No shared infrastructure has been verified, and the alliances appear more symbolic than operational. Still, these moves highlight ransomware's evolution toward corporate-style marketing. DragonForce promotes itself with: The group's messaging reflects a competitive marketplace where image and credibility are as valuable as encryption speed. Geographic and Industry Trends Global targeting in Q3 2025 largely mirrored previous quarters but with distinct regional and sector shifts. Read the full Q3 2025 Ransomware Report On the industrial side: These shifts show how ransomware is guided by business logic more than ideology. Actors pursue sectors and regions with high-value data and low tolerance for downtime. The Road Ahead Q3 2025 confirms ransomware's structural resilience. Enforcement and market pressure no longer suppress overall volume; they simply reshape the landscape. Each takedown disperses actors who quickly resurface under new names or join emerging collectives. LockBit's return adds another layer of complexity, raising the question of whether ransomware is entering a new consolidation cycle. If LockBit re-establishes dominance, it may restore some predictability but also re-enable large-scale, coordinated campaigns that smaller crews cannot execute. For cyber security professionals, the takeaway is clear. Tracking brands is no longer enough. Analysts must monitor affiliate mobility, infrastructure overlap, and economic incentives — the underlying forces that sustain ransomware even as its faces fragment. 🔗 Read the full Q3 2025 Ransomware Report →